Scott Adam's theory on the death of author as a profession

[Dave Zeltserman]

This is somewhat related to the Garrison Keillor thread:

http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/the_adams_theory_of__content_value/

"I predict that the profession known as "author" will be retired to history in my lifetime, like blacksmith and cowboy. In the future,
everyone will be a writer, and some will be better and more prolific
than others. But no one will pay to read what anyone else creates.
People might someday write entire books - and good ones - for the
benefit of their own publicity, such as to promote themselves as
consultants, lecturers, or the like. But no one born today is the next
multi-best-selling author. That job won't exist."

[John McFetridge]

I thnk there's a different trend going on, not so much what people can make their living at, but rather who will be paying them to do it. Right now authors' income (at least in America) is based entirely on how many books they sell to individual buyers (and some library sales).

But in other parts of the world (like Sweden and even Canada) there is more government support of the arts and education. Which is why it doesn't surprise me that something like the Pirate Bay and Linux and open-source software started in Sweden (or other Scandanavian countries). The feeling is very much that their taxes paid for arts grants which created the content so it shoud be freely distributed - they've already paid for it.

America may be the last country to worship the idea of the individual - to mythologize it and fetishize it (I;m thinking of Rush Limbaugh and his "rugged individualism," an idea that could really only be held in such high regard by a guy who got his first job in radio because his father owned the station).

It's rare for writers in other countries - where the native market is so small - to expect to make a living solely from writing. To do that you need big foreign sales and that only happens for a small number of writers - far fewer than there are people who win the lottery. But most of those countries still want art created for their home market - so it's subsidized. And writers expect to have another job as well. Usually teacher, of course, but not always.

[Dana King]

I'm moving in your direction, Dan. I have a theory I call the "Income to Bullshit" curve. The money income an activity provides, the more bullshit I'm willing to put up with. (Income can be rewards other than financial.) Lately, writing has been consistently below the curve for me, so I've taken a step back and learned to appreciate the joys of weeknight baseball and exercise. It's only been a few weeks, but so far it's been a good trade.

I expect I'll get restless and get back into it before too long, but then it will be something I want to do, not something I feel I have to do. Lewis Black said writing is like having homework every night. I'm too old for that, and I'm sure as hell not making any money at it. Other options must be entertained.

[John Desjarlais]

I dunno. This is like talking about 'the end of the doctor' because there are so many over-the-counter meds people can choose.

[Jack Getze]

Exactly. Free medical advice on the internet hasn't replaced doctors. And real lovers of stories and books will only be happy with something written by a professional storyteller -- someone who has learned a craft and can write entertainingly.

Don't know what will happen to "literary" writing, but I know damn well people will always want good stories.

[Dave Zeltserman]

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Adams. He's a bright guy, I've always enjoyed his books (and his Dilbert cartoons), which tend to be very smart looks at future trends. He's not saying this will happen tomorrow, but his point, which I think is hard to argue with, is if you have a device for reading ebooks, and this device makes is just as easy to download free copies of a book as it does to actually purpose a book, and you mix in with that a generational attitude that nothing should cost money on the internet, then you're going to point where nobody is buying books.

Will people still be writing books is this type of environment? Some people will, but professional writers won't. If we look back at our favorite crime fiction, I think very little of it would've been written if there was little chance of the author making a living at it.

[John McFetridge]

Well, you know, Dave, nothing's really 'free.' We pay for these internet connections. It's a matter of how the money is divided. Joe Konrath is big on the idea of advertising-funded books like we have ad-funded TV shows, maybe combined with a subscription service like cable TV.

One thing I've been wondering lately is if anyone's ever done a study to find out how many different people read a print book? I used to buy a lot of used books and then take them back to the store. I also get a lot of books out of the library.

The book business has always (at least since mass market paperbacks) operated with the idea that for every book sold X number of people will read it. That's the same idea Konrath is using when he says he doesn't mind piracy - he sells 40,000 book and 250,000 are pirated. It's possible that those are similar numbers to print books.

Will the small number of people cntinue to buy? Maybe.

[Dave Zeltserman]

John, Adams isn't saying this will happen tomorrow. But what is a lot different, and what Joe isn't factoring in with the iPad, is that it is just about as easy to download a free version with the iPad as it is to buy a book (not true with the Kindle), and it will only get easier as there will certainly be dedicated apps for that! So I think you've got to throw out what Joe is seeing now. Plus, I think this 'everything on the internet should be free' is a more of a generational thing that will only get stronger over time.

[Dana King]

I don't know. It's cool not to pay for stuff when you're young; I used to sneak into concerts all the time when I was a music student. Now I wouldn't dream of it.

I wonder if those who might prefer to get everything for free--and, at some level, wouldn't we all?--will, in fact, pay for stuff if the better stuff still requires payment. Thinking people understand at some visceral level you get what you pay for. If they eventually get tired of reading shit, and their only other option is to pay, they'll pay. It's all part of growing up. This is also why I don't worry so much about the "aging demographic." Everyone ages. There are new members of our core demographic coming along every day.

[I. J. Parker]

Advertising-driven TV pretty much sucks, so we're looking at the same thing in the reading material that will be available?

I do think libraries do a good deal of damage to a writer's income. Used books aren't nearly as bad in that they persuade buyers of new books that they'll get some of their investment back. We should at least have some system like the Canadian one, where libraries kick back some small user fees to authors.

(The sad fact is that my series will be heavily dependent on library sales in the future).

[Jon Loomis]

Libraries have accounted for the first 2500 copies sold of both my books. I don't see how that hurts me, frankly.

[Jon Loomis]

Advertising-funded books? How would that work? Sometimes I think I should get paid for doing product placements...

[Jon Loomis]

I fretted about the advent of ebooks for exactly this reason--that there would be enough consumer resentment over pricing to generate significant momentum for file-sharing/piracy. In fact we see it on another thread here as we speak: some consumers have a set price-point (based on a completely arbitrary expectation created by Amazon) above which they just won't go--there are actually a number "boycott" tags on Amazon now for any Kindle book priced over $9.99 that consumers can apparently apply with Amazon's blessing. In fact, here are the "suggested tags from other products" that appear on the Kindle page for my MATING SEASON:

publisher price ripoff(4)
9 99 boycott(3)
9 99 boycott outrageous price for a kind...(2)
not(2)
outrageous kindle price(2)
outrageous price(2)
overpriced no way(2)
overpriced-kindle-version(2)
price gouging(2)
price yourself out of business(2)

Again, these are tags that Amazon suggests consumers might want to apply to the Kindle version of my book (never mind that it's currently priced at $7.99). When you create rigid price expectations like this, many consumers will take it as an excuse to download the book for free if they can. And they can--about five minutes after the electronic version is released, it'll end up on bittorrent or wherever. What Adams is talking about is the slippery slope effect: what happens when consumers decide that $9.99 is too much to pay for an ebook that costs publishers very little to produce? Or $5.99? Or $1.99? It happened to the recording industry, and in a slightly different way to the newspaper and magazine industries, and I still don't see what's going to stop it from happening to book publishing.