Scott Adam's theory on the death of author as a profession

This is somewhat related to the Garrison Keillor thread:

http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/the_adams_theory_of__content_value/

"I predict that the profession known as "author" will be retired to history in my lifetime, like blacksmith and cowboy. In the future,
everyone will be a writer, and some will be better and more prolific
than others. But no one will pay to read what anyone else creates.
People might someday write entire books - and good ones - for the
benefit of their own publicity, such as to promote themselves as
consultants, lecturers, or the like. But no one born today is the next
multi-best-selling author. That job won't exist."

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Yes, this is all true. The idea that individual people will pay a few dollars for each book, movie, TV show or song they read/view/listen to on their electronic device will probably come to an end.

But as long as there's a demand for specific content and money changes hands to access it, deals will be made.

I worked as a staff writer on a TV show last year. Good money for writing, but it was more of a job than the entrepeneur I am as a novelist. I was paid by a company for content. In Canada there are no residuals, no profit-sharing, no matter what the ratings or how may DVDs are sold or how many times the show is downloaded or whatever, I don't get any more money. That's probably not a great system (American TV writers went on strike over it), but frankly the pay was enough for me to take the deal (I felt a little bad that the reason the show was made here was because of that writers' strike in the US).

Could something like that work for books? Could novelists become staff witers?
I suppose we could all end up on contract with Amazon or Apple at some point--but if nobody's paying for content I don't see how there's any money to be made by anybody. If there was, Apple/Amazon could just as easily outsource the whole thing to India, or maybe Steve Jobs and his gaggle of geniuses will write an iNovel app that allows you to fill in your personal specs and then writes the book for you when you hit "return."
No, we'll end up on contract to Google. When they start their own ISP and run everyone else out of business. Remember content is ALL anyone is actually paying for.

Or, if you prefer your fascist fears from the other end of the spectrum, we'll all end up working for the government when it all gets nationalized ;)
That model was very much in play until the mid-80s, when the era of publishing consolidation really began in earnest. And it's still in play to some extent in the literary world--win yourself a first book Pulitzer or National Book Award, or even be a finalist, and you'll see some fat advances coming your way.
I think it is beyond that first or second book threshold--you get one try, maybe two, and then if the books don't earn out you're pretty much done. But by then you'll have a teaching gig at a nice MFA program, so it's all good.
I'm going to go on the record and say there will always be a need for a novelist--and the best will be paid for their efforts. With ebooks and ebook readers, instead of the book market drying up, I think its just the oppostie; it'll explode exponentially. Now the entire world becomes the market.

As for as books going the route of the dinosaur, I doubt it. That's what they said about vinyl LP albums. But if you've noticed, there's been a discreet rebuilding of that market and the numbers are increasing. Besides, those who look into the future and make predictions have an abysmal record when it comes to being accurate.

A book made of some kind of paper and written in ink is a 10,000 year old human invention. It'll be around for as long as there are humans.
Doom and gloom, doom and gloom. Yet no solutions. It's easy to play this "Sky is Falling" game. Anyone can make a prediction about anything and feel they're the smartest guy in the room. Thing is, the smartest guy in the room would have come up with a solution for these problems.

Which is why these articles are getting a bit trying. It's the same with newspapers. Yes, it's a dying industry. What are you, Mr. Doomsayer, going to do about it? Write another article about how the industry is failing? Thanks, but I don't need to feed some smug jerk his daily ego feed.

I know what's going on. People know what's going on. Propose a solution and pull the stick out.
There may not be a "solution," though, if the "problem" is demographic change and/or new technologies supplanting traditional ways of doing things. Seriously, what kind of fix would you have them propose? There's precedent here, both in recording and in newspaper and magazine publishing, and so far the news is all pretty terrible. Certainly "giving your work away for free" doesn't seem to be the answer. Anyway, if it's incumbent on those who point out that the sky is falling to propose a solution, and maybe it is, it's certainly incumbent on those who criticise others for not proposing solutions to propose solutions, no?

Seriously, I think the answer for writers is what it's always been: write better stuff. If all the money's concentrated at the top, and if what you're after as a writer is a share of that money, then you'd best figure out the magic formula for writing best-sellers. The industry is what it is, and will be what it will be. The change that's coming is demographic and therefore inevitable: we'll either find ways to survive or we won't. For me it's book to book already--if I can't negotiate a big enough advance to cover my lost income while I'm writing, that's the end of my crime-writing career. I'll never write another crime novel on spec, and I sure as hell won't self publish or give my work away for free in the Kindle store. There's always the academic comedy to write, and the memoir, and the next book of poems if I really want to work my ass off for free.
Yes, I think your're right, Jon, you have to find - and please - a market. I don't like the "buggy whip" analogy that techies seem to use all the time because the demand for buggy whips disappeared but the demand for artistic content is greater than its ever been. Even newspapers point out tht more people are reading their articles that ever before - they're just reading single articles that have been linked to by websites. So, the business model has to change, but the demand is still there.

As for novels, as you say, it's concentrated at the top. I do think the book business is following the movie business where a few blockbuters make all the money. But for the movie business that may be more because TV fills the demand for more diverse stories. The movie theatre expereince might serve a youbger demographic, but the older demographic still like narrative - they just get it on TV.

So, if the book business is going to go blockbuster, something else will have to be the TV that fills the void. Because there is a great demand for stories beyond blockbusters.
You're right, Jon, it is incumbent on me. Here's my proposal:

In X number of years, instead of querying a publisher, writers will query major retailers of digital content. These retailers will be the gatekeepers, like it or not. They will still accept crap from anyone, the difference being how the retailers market writers. This will arrive out of a need to sort content according to quality, demanded by consumers frustrated with content bloat (this is already happening).

The cream will rise to the top, the crap will not.

We're already seeing a handful of digital retailers grab most of the market (Apple, Amazon, etc). Placing them as content gatekeepers would allow them to claim quality over their competitors. This demand for quality will come from consumers who are overwhelmed by the millions of books available.
The cream will rise to the top, the crap will not.

So in the future, the Da Vinci Code and Twilight would never make it out of the self-publishing dungheap? I like it, Benjamin. I like it a lot.

My guess is that Amazon will shortly begin segregating self-published work into its own store, while stuff that's vetted by traditional publishers will occupy a second tier, with best-sellers on a special little shelf of their own. You'd think also that publishers would start disseminating their ebooks from their own websites; why not take control of promotion and keep the retailer's share for yourself? But there may be anti-trust law that prevents them from doing so, I don't know.
"Cream" in this case would mean "sellable" and "crap" would mean "not sellable." If that doesn't sound good, well, it's the way it's always been.

Self-publishers sell all their books on their sites, I don't see why traditional ones couldn't do the same. The thing is, retailers will still be the first place consumers go to buy content.

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