I promised my answer to the question of which element is most important. Even though I admitted it was an impossible question, I asked for your best answer. Now here's mine.
In mystery, I argue that plot is most important. The whole premise of mystery is a story in which the reader must follow the plot and solve the crime before or along with the protag. If follows then that without a good plot, we don't have a mystery at all. As Dana pointed out, there are lots of successful writers who care less about plot than other elements, but I'd say that they lean into other realms and aren't purely mystery writers. Some of them are great and I love them, but for me, if the plot doesn't measure up, I'm disappointed. The murderer who has a pathetically weak motive, the contrived means/motive, or the key fact that the reader could not have known spoil everything. Like my old pal E.A. Poe, I want the plot in a mystery to move inexorably to an end, sweeping me along with it, which is where character and all the rest become important. But without a compelling plot, it's just good writing.
Today's challenge, then: name three books where the plot was so cunningly created that you HAD to know what happened next, not just at the hook, but all the way through. (I don't care if they're mysteries or something else.) I found that with Wren's BEAU GESTE when I was about 16 years old, and more recently with WHAT THE DEAD KNOW by Laura Lippman, and Barbara Kingsolver's THE POISONWOOD BIBLE. That's to name just a few, of course, but they all kept me reading, pushing everything else back while I found out what happened in the end.
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