Let's make a few assumptions...and guess the rest.

[B.R.Stateham]

Let's make a few assumptions:

1. The publishing industry is radically shedding old habits and structuring itself in a different
set of new clothes.

2. Fiction as we know it, will not be produced by big-name publishing houses. Smaller 'specialty'
publishers are going to pick up the pieces and carry on.

3. Ebooks and other electronic media is going to eventually become equal to, or superior than,
the current print medium in relation to making a profit.

4. With the advent of POD printing, the need to have institutions like Ingram's
distributing books becomes obsolete. Printing on demands reduces the need for
storage space, and the cost of printing itself is reduced drastically.

Now comes the guessing part;

1. What happens to literary agencies?

2. How much stronger does Amazon and Ebay become in the publishing world?

3. With the potentiality of millions of writers flooding the internet with their work, will\
anyone be able to earn a living thru their writing?

4. And ultimately, does the print medium eventually succombs to the visual arts
medium of gaming and digital animation?

What do you think?

[B.R.Stateham]

I hope you are right, Neil. I really do. But in looking at how the major houses have been chopping editors and staffs, you get the feeling they're cutting the markets which makes them the least amount of money.

[Neil Nyren]

HMH announced a temporary acquisition freeze, but not wholesale cancellations (and they've been acquiring, anyway!). If there are cancellations (which wouldn't, in fact, surprise me), it wouldn't have anything to do with whether they're fiction or nonfiction, just with saving cash in general. Their new owners way over-leveraged themselves when they bought the company, which is why they're in difficulty. Trust me, it doesn't represent the rest of publishing, or publishing's attitude toward fiction.

[B.R.Stateham]

Neil,

PublisherMarketPlace is reporting over and over how big-name houses are dropping or drastically curtailing their fiction lines.

[Dana King]

I believe Harcourt has canceled most, if not all of their fiction contracts.

[Neil Nyren]

Sorry, B.R., simply not true. Don't know where you're getting that from.

[B.R.Stateham]

Big name publishing houses are finding it harder and harder to make a buck selling fiction. Non-fiction wins, far and away, over fiction. Since big houses are owned by giant conglomerates--they're going to go where the money is. In non-fiction.

[Neil Nyren]

A question regarding the original post -- the "assumption" that "big name publishing houses" won't be producing fiction. Say what, again?

[Dana King]

Setting aside the current economy for the moment, I'm getting the impression from over a year's worth of Crimespace discussion that the real financial problems of the publishing industry isn't that it doesn't make money, but that it doesn't make enough money to satisfy the conglomerate owners.

If that is true, then John's comment above about a cottage industry has a great deal of merit. A new business model is sorely needed (this whole return policy is bizarre), and a lower advance-higher royalty system could grow if that changed, but, as I read on someone's blog a couple fo weeks ago, this was never intended to be a limosine industry. There's probably eough money to go around for everyone, just not as much as a few of the players want.

[John Dishon]

Cutting out the middleman could help get you more money for each book sold.

I think publishing would be okay, though, even if it just reverted back to the cottage industry it used to be. There's a problem with all the major houses being owned by only about five companies, all of which have their hand in other industries at the same time.

[John McFetridge]

I have a website and a blog - learning that was a lot easier and less took a lot less time than learning how to write.

As for POD keeping books in print, that'll be an issue worked out in new contracts. There'll be some problems with current contracts - as there always are when new technology comes on board, but they were solved for reruns on TV and video and DVD sales for movies (as far as royalty payments were concerned) so I imagine that'll get solved here.

As for the need fr publishers in this brave new world, there'll still be a need for editors and for some kind of vetting system, some way to narrow down the large number of avilable books. But will there be a need for a big German media company to get a cut (and I say this and I'm with St. Martins now and they're part of McMillan which is part of... well I lose track)? I wouldn't want to do without my editor, but the current system of publisher-distributor-bookstore, well, the whole thing is really in play and could go in a few different directions.

Most writers (99%?) sell at most a few thousand copies of a book. If that were to continue but the writer received more than the tiny percentage they do now it would be okay. It might even make up for the extra work.