Let's make a few assumptions...and guess the rest.

[B.R.Stateham]

Let's make a few assumptions:

1. The publishing industry is radically shedding old habits and structuring itself in a different
set of new clothes.

2. Fiction as we know it, will not be produced by big-name publishing houses. Smaller 'specialty'
publishers are going to pick up the pieces and carry on.

3. Ebooks and other electronic media is going to eventually become equal to, or superior than,
the current print medium in relation to making a profit.

4. With the advent of POD printing, the need to have institutions like Ingram's
distributing books becomes obsolete. Printing on demands reduces the need for
storage space, and the cost of printing itself is reduced drastically.

Now comes the guessing part;

1. What happens to literary agencies?

2. How much stronger does Amazon and Ebay become in the publishing world?

3. With the potentiality of millions of writers flooding the internet with their work, will\
anyone be able to earn a living thru their writing?

4. And ultimately, does the print medium eventually succombs to the visual arts
medium of gaming and digital animation?

What do you think?

[John Dishon]

I'm talking a site dedicated to displaying authors' work. There isn't one yet; at least not a popular one. One with a rating system, so that the best works are displayed prominently, and the crap is filtered out.

[B.R.Stateham]

You want a web site that's free and you can adveritse? Try Craigslist.com

[John Dishon]

The cream will rise to the top, I believe. That does mean authors are going to be pressured to write better books in order to compete, but I think that's great.

And of course not everyone will succeed. There are still going to be great writers that are going to go unnoticed, but I think the added competition could help raise the quality of books. Maybe not. And then, my idea doesn't have to replace publishers; it could simply be a viable alternative. And that would be even better; more competition.

As far as time and effort, yeah it will take time to set your book up, unless you get someone to do it for you. Advertising on the internet doesn't have to take much time. It can be as easy as posting a link. And if there were websites dedicated to people promoting their work, then it would be easier than now, where there isn't really any central location for writers to go to promote their work.

[B.R.Stateham]

John

I can see a problem with the idea of everyone becoming their own publisher. In the States today roughly 130,000 books are published every year. With POD that number could jump up to 130 MILLION. Talk about flooding the market!

Publishers are going to be need, in my opinion. For this simple reason; if social-networking was the litmus test for a self-published author to make money, I should be a gazillion-aire. I've got my books out there scattered throughout the net. But I haven't seen much money. Worse, the time and effort needed to really sell your book by yourself via the net is astronomical. Where do you get the time to write? Or have a day job?

I think POD is in its birthing stage. We're watching the birth of an idustry about ready to grow up and redefine publishing. It's going to be exciting. And it's going to be a very bumpy ride. People and publishers are going to get sorely abused seeing this new critter growing up.

[John Dishon]

That does bring up the issue of author's rights. Usually a book that doesn't sell goes out of print and eventually the rights revert back to the author. But if you're using POD technology, a book never can go out of print. So that could make authors further at the mercy of their publisher.

But then, if you're using POD technology, you don't really need a publisher anyway, do you? You can design the book yourself, or hire someone to do it for you, and then sell it. You could deal only with the printer. Combine that with a social-networking site like Crimespace where you can get more advertisement then a publisher can give you (that is, any, since publishers rarely advertise books as it is) and you have the potential of managing your own career without the need for either an agent or a publisher. There's potential in that, anyway. Who knows how well that would work in practice.

[B.R.Stateham]

John

I agree whole-heartedly on your point that authors have got to get more involved in a book's cover design. And in fact, being sel-published gives you that freedom, And I agree with you that Word is a terrible format for novel writing--yet the publishers I deal with ask for it.

You're absolutely right when you say a book is first considered because of what the cover design looks like. Perhaps more true in Sci-Fi and Fantasy than in Mystery--but not by much if that's the case. I've always been amazed how little thought an author takes in considering what his book cover should look like--and equally amazed at the thought an established writer would shrug off an editor's or publisher's belief cover art decisions belonged solely to them.

But here's where I thing publishing is truly going to change. With the advent of POD printing and its rising product quality, along with a corresponding savings in print costs, I think the potential is there to literately Print On Demand. So a bookchain like B&N could go directly to the publisher and ask for a 1000 books--knowing it can sell a 1000 books easily. This is going to eliminate book distribution systems. There's no need for them anymore. Because of POD, fewer books need to sit in warehouses. And they're hell of a lot easier to print up and ship off.

[John McFetridge]

Yes, I think you're right that self-publishing will change. I see it already working in stages. Here's an article about a writer self-publishing his earlier books that have gone out of print as well as self-publishing a lot of the research he did for his novels.

He makes the point that this stuff is too specialized for a publishing company to get behind and that's probably true. But I also see it as helping to legitimize self-publishing and giving some control to authors.

A little while ago I collected up a dozen flash fiction pieces, two short stories and a few interviews I'd done and am giving it all away as an e-book on my website. My publisher said there wasn't really a market for a book of short stories and flash fiction from such a little-known writer as me and that maybe they would consider it in a few years if my books sales really increase. I see it as advertising for my novels, like those free samples they used to give away in grocery stores, and I also just wanted to make it all available in one place (all the stories and interviews were on assorted web sites).

[John Dishon]

i haven't left yet. Not until March 2. It's nice to know my opinions are appreciated though. I don't really have a lot to say about this though because I'm not sure your assumptions are going to be accurate. I don't think books will get replaced by anything. Video games certainly won't; that's like saying movies will replace books. They're a different kind of entertainment, and I think most people would like to have as many forms of entertainment as possible.

I don't know enough about the industry to make predictions, but I would like to see authors get more control. I think the biggest thing that needs to happen is getting the stigma of self-publishing removed, but it needs to be a justified removal, meaning I think self-published authors need to step it up in terms of layout and cover design. The stories themselves need to be quality as well, but books are judged first by how they look, in spite of that old adage, so we need to deal with that. And that involves better education in terms of graphic design. Self-published authors need to learn, for example, that Word is not a good program to use to format/layout your work.

Only when self-published novels can visually hold there own against the more "professional" major house designs, will self-published novels have a chance at competing. I like the idea of publishing being more open, to let the readers decide what's better rather than a select few editors. I say let the works speak for themselves as much as possible.

[John McFetridge]

It's only not promising if that's your goal. Lots of writers really like teaching, or whatever their other job is.

At a recent Bouchercon Joseph Wambaugh's advice to another cop-turned writer was to not give up his job as a cop too soon. Wambaugh felt he made a mistake quitting as soon as he did.

If it's 100 fiction writers in the US then here in Canada it would be about ten.

the thing is, I don't think this is any different than it ever was. What's changed is now people study "writing" at university the way they study engineering or law and look to step right into the work. Except "entry level" fiction writing jobs are short stories that don't really pay anything.

[B.R.Stateham]

John, some smart person told me than in the States, only about 100 fiction writers (out of all the thousands who write fiction) make a decent living off their writing as their only source of income. That doesn't sound too promising, does it.