Question for Neil Nyren

[Jon Loomis]

As Senior vice president, publisher and editor in chief of G.P. Putnam's Sons, how would you describe the current state of the publishing industry? The news all seems pretty grim from where some of us sit--book sales down, advances drying up, booksellers disappearing, industry layoffs, etc. In your view, where are we now, and where are we likely to be in five years, say?

[Jon Loomis]

John--I've heard that about series taking awhile to catch on, yes, and I don't doubt that it's sometimes true, but I also wonder if that line isn't used to string authors along, to keep them cranking out marginally profitable books at little risk to the publisher. I'd like to avoid that trap. It also really is a question of what I can afford in terms of taking off from work, etc., to write a book: I don't do these things in my spare time, because I don't have any spare time. If I was retired or had a trust fund and didn't have little kids I want to hang out with, I'd probably be content to write them for whatever was being offered--but as it is I'd actually lose money, short-term, at least, and I just can't find a way to justify that, especially when economic times are so uncertain.

[John McFetridge]

It seems easy enough to look into. I know that until I started hanging around at CrimeSpace and going to Bouchercon I'd never heard of a series writer until there were at least five or six books out in mass market.

Can you think of any series writers who had big sales with one of their first two books?

[John Dishon]

John Burdett and his Bangkok series? I don't know about the sales, but I took notice with the first book and saw it everywhere.

[I. J. Parker]

My latest info is that it takes seven books. Few series writers make it that far. Without promotion and publisher support, the series will tank. And therein lies serious damage to the author's reputation. I recall a rejection letter from an editor at my first publisher's (the one that had done nothing to promote the series and decided to drop it six months after the release of the first novel) when I was trying to sell a diffrerent novel. He had the nerve to point out that my sales record did not encourage investment.

[Jon Loomis]

Thanks, Jude--I hope so to. But if not, as I say, there are other things. This may not be universally true, but my experience has been that even when books earn out, royalties don't necessarily appear--not as long as publishers can set whatever reserve against returns they'd like. The reserve seems to be this magic number that's just slightly more than the royalties you're owed. Funny how that works.

[I. J. Parker]

Too true! I think when I reach that point, I'm going to be seriously angry.

[Dana King]

This is a question ("even when books earn out, royalties don't necessarily appear--not as long as publishers can set whatever reserve against returns they'd like. The reserve seems to be this magic number that's just slightly more than the royalties you're owed.") I'd love to see Neil address. I suspect/hope there's more to it than meets the eye.

[Jon Loomis]

From where I sit it's a system that penalizes authors for the abuses of big booksellers, while immunizing publishers from at least some of the risk of overprinting. Great for booksellers, okay for publishers, and a truly raw deal (but the industry norm, unfortunately) for those of us writers who could really use those royalty checks, even if they're only for a few thousand bucks. We're paying $2500 a month for pre-school/childcare, fer chrissakes. Worse, the reserve thing never seems to go away: my book #1 quickly sold out its first two printings and earned out, in hardcover, the advance for both books #1 and #2, and the HC reserve for book #1. Then my publisher decided to release it in MM paper, with a much bigger print run and a new reserve--but no promo budget for the MM, which sold okay but not great, although sales should pick up again once book #2 comes out. When book #2 is released, though, there will be yet another reserve to earn out, and again if they do a paper edition. It's a moving target which seems designed to allow publishers to delay paying royalties as long as possible. That's part of the reason I feel strongly about getting the best up-front deal I can get. The second part is that with all the current industry upheaval, my imprint could be sold, conglomerated, spun-off or shut down next week--and/or my editor (who I love) could be off to greener pastures, and my book/series shunted aside in favor of the new editor's pet projects--so it's in my interests to get the money up front, now, before I get hit by a metaphorical bus.

[Sandra Ruttan]

I remember a few years ago, when I still read DorothyL, there was a lively discussion about author blurbs. It was being asserted by some people (note: authors without much success in the blurb department or the sales department or the review department, as I vaguely recall) that authors were paid for blurbs.

(I mean, yeah, because I could afford to pay Clive Cussler to put his name on my work?)

Neil Nyren was the voice of reason that stepped in on that discussion back then, and although I've never had the pleasure of meeting Neil, I've always found he offers practical points and common sense.

That isn't to say that there isn't room for disagreement on some topics, but I've been in both camps in recent years - aspiring to be published, and published. And I definitely know a lot more about the industry now than I did three years ago. Even one year ago.

I think what tends to happen in publishing is that the exception is regarded as the norm. There's some ridiculous book deal for a celebrity, and suddenly that's all the publishers are buying. Someone who's related to someone who knows someone gets a deal and suddenly it's all backscratching. I assure you, it's only 99% backscratching. ;)

At the end of the day, all I really know is this. I was told that a crime fiction series (that wasn't a cozy) set in Canada couldn't sell to a US publisher. I sold mine (and via word of mouth and recommendations, John McFetridge has landed US deals with Harcourt and Thomas Dunne for very gritty Canada-based books) and just a few months ago, I gave my publisher a proposal (three chapters and a five page outline) for a third book in the series. It was bought on the proposal alone. Not only that, but it was bought at a time that everyone was running around, pulling their hair out, lamenting the decline in sales. And I was offered more money for the third book than I'd been paid for the first two.

Go figure.

Whatever I read, it's always tempered by a very specific reality. My partner works in the business, and his specific job involves seeing sales figures. And sales are not as far down as has been reported on a lot of blogs. Sometimes, when I see the fear and when I see the facts, I find myself wondering if the only conspiracy at work is one by editors and agents, to dissuade the undetermined from trying to get published.

The main thing that depresses me about the publishing industry is looking at my tbr pile. That, and Brian mentioned someone had worked out, based on life expectancy, how many books they'd have time to read before they died, and that number seems so very small.

To be honest with you, I think TV is in more trouble right now than books. The push to bring more late night style programming on earlier is resulting in a decrease in the production of new shows, and much of what's on is copycat programming and reality shows. The result is that there's been an increase recently in the imports of Canadian TV series to US networks. Bad business for some is good business for others. Another factor in book sales last year was the rise in the US dollar. The decline against the Loonie the year before had resulted in lost sales in the Canadian market, and more people shopping across the border, because it was cheaper for Canadians to buy books from the US. When the US dollar rose again, Canadians took their shopping home. On the face of it, people look at the retail sales figures and think it's all about the economy, but there are other variables.

You do have to pay some attention to the business, but you can't be obsessed by it. I learned my lesson from my cousin, who packed his scant belongings and headed to Nashville with little more than a dream and a guitar and a pair of boots he'd eventually resole so many times he lost count. It was ten years before his debut CD came out, and it looked like he exploded from nowhere, because he'd been co-writing songs with Dierks Bentley that came out around the same time. It was ten long years of hard work to build his career as a songwriter (and an artist, though he's better known for that north of the border). He said himself in ten years he'd seen a lot of people come and go. Almost any parent will tell their child the odds of making it as a recording artist or an actor are so slim, go to Hollywood and become a statistic, just another waitress struggling to get by while you fight for spots in commercials.

When I talked to him about it, it was the biggest kick in the backside. He'd risked everything and put in ten hard years, sometimes eating in the dark because he couldn't afford electricity, to realize his dream. And I could stay home, work in the comfort of my own house, and I wasn't writing because I'd persuaded myself it was impossible to get published?

We writers don't have to move, we don't have to give up our jobs, and we actually have better odds of making it if we can actually write. For all the craziness that there is in the industry, it's ALL irrelevant if you never finish writing a book, and that's the way to be certain that you'll never sign a deal. If the dream of being published is within you, your focus has to be on the writing.

[Dana King]

Thank you thank you thank you. As a recovering musician myself, I sympathize with your cousin. I didn't sacrifice as much as he did, but I know the feeling of busting your butt and not getting much of anywhere. I argue the point with my writers group about once a year, which calling is tougher. Knowing what I've learned about writing, I still say musician is the tougher gig.

It's natural for those in such a competitive field to focus on the negative, but these negatives are often beyond our control. Do what you can do to affect the situation: write. Finish. Repeat. Sooner or later you'll make it. or you won't. But you're a hell of a lot more likely to make it if you stick at it, and set reasonable expectiations for your personal definition of "making it."

[I. J. Parker]

Damn good thread!

You cannot be a writer and not dream. We all have good days and bad days. And while the possibility of success is always there (I have very high hopes for my next book), the realities are also there. For most of us, the book has to succeed on its own. And that is against all the odds, whether they involve the state of the economy, our contract, low initial runs, missing promotion for marketing, missing promotion for store displays, quick returns, closing book stores, overwhelming sales of a few titles by big box stores, fewer print reviews, Amazon listing used books beside new ones, and the beginnings of e-book vandalism.

Keep in mind that, if you succeed with all that going against you, you have written a terrific book!

[B.R.Stateham]

Sandra--Wonderful commentary! You bring a sense of hope to all of us aspiring writers. And I truly mean that kid.