Ebook sales skyrocketing

[B.R.Stateham]

E-book sales have been going through the roof for months now.  Look at the latest figures. The day may be very close when writers may be writing only for the ebook trade and not for anyone else

http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/financial...

[B.R.Stateham]

Yes, Ben--but if they keep climbing at huge percentages over the next two years, they'll be a MAJOR share of the market. There's absolutely no sign this phenomenon is slowing down. In fact, its just the opposite.

[Benjamin Sobieck]

It will be eventually. Ebook sale percentages are bound to stall and even decline at a certain point before we get there.

We're seeing a core group of early adopters buy ebooks. The second wave, where ebook buyers are in every home, hasn't hit yet. That first group will reach a peak and stall, which will cause the price of ereaders to fall. That's when the second wave will hit and sales will really take off.

We haven't hit that stall yet. How long will that stall last? I don't know. But it's coming.

[Camille LaGuire]

I think we're long past the early adopters only phase. Of course there will be periods of growth and plateaus, but this seems to be following the mp3 player model, and we're not at the stage where the average person is saying "oh, cool!"

I do think, though, that the next phase of growth may come out of the smart phone market, because the user doesn't have to buy something special to get into ebooks. That seems to be what is happening with our students. They're admiring each other's Kindles, but they're dipping their own feet into the waters by buying books for their iPhones.

Of course, the other thing that will make a difference is the rapidly dropping price of ereaders, and how schools incorporate them.

[Camille LaGuire]

The other thing you have to consider, though, is that independent authors make a much larger cut of the proceeds on each sale, so even at a lower price, it takes fewer sales to make a book viable for an author.

In some ways, it's in our favor that ebooks are still relatively small - because that gives publishers a chance to adjust their business model. They like to say that the raw materials are a tiny portion of the cost of a book, but that's not really true. So much of the expenses and the need for "scarcity pricing" in publishing is based on the hidden costs of the physical product. There is a lot of infrastructure in the system that will have to be phased out, and imho the publishing industry can't easily cut costs until that is dealt with.

But once it can, it will mean that even for traditionally published books, fewer sales at lower prices are still better money.

[I. J. Parker]

Hmm, Ben. I've seen different percentages posted by Amazon and some of the big houses.
Also, from what we hear, people are buying the gadgets like mad. That is part of the recent hype in new electronics. Once they own the gadgets, they want the books on it. Then they report they love the thing and that they're reading more than they ever did before. It seems to me that can only grow. The problem in the end may be pirating.

[B.R.Stateham]

I agree with you, I.J. Bring the price of a book down to below $10 (in whatever format) and suddenly the world opens up to readers wanting to read. The market is out there. And so far readers haven't been priced out.

[EDWARD C MORGAN]

As the prices drop - you can get a Kindle for $139 now - ereaders will shift from being "something neat to have" to "something you have to have." That will also further a shift toward e-books.